The Gambling Example

 

Considering gambling illuminates the mathematical representation of expected benefit.  Suppose that we meet every day, and you pay me $2 to flip coin.  If the coin comes up heads, I pay you $3; if it comes up tails, I pay you nothing.  If we do this long enough, I will come out way ahead.  The reason is that the probability of heads and tails is the same:  0.5.  That is, over the long run, there will be as many heads as tails.  Each time we flip, you pay me $2, and half of the time, I pay you $3.  So in 100 flips, I get $200, and you get $150. 

 

This is a bad bet for you.  The expected benefit calculation captures the badness of the bet.  The value to you of the coin coming up heads is $3.  The probability of this is 0.5.  So the expected benefit is $1.50.  But you are paying $2 for this benefit.  It is irrational to spend $2 to get $1.50.   

 

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